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Thursday, April 4, 2013
A model predicts that the world's populations will stop growing in 2050
Thursday, April 4, 2013
Global population data spanning the years from 1900 to 2010 have enabled a research team from the Autonomous University of Madrid to predict that the number of people on Earth will stabilise around the middle of the century. The results, obtained with a model used by physicists, coincide with the UN's downward forecasts.
According to United Nations' estimates, the world population in 2100 will be within a range between 15.8 billion people according to the highest estimates ?high fertility variant? and 6.2 billion according to the lowest ?low fertility variant?, a figure that stands below the current 7 billion.
A mathematical model developed by a team from the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and the CEU-San Pablo University, both from Spain, seems to confirm the lower estimate, in addition to a standstill and even a slight drop in the number of people on Earth by the mid-21st century.
The population prospects between 1950 and 2100 provided by the UN were used to conduct the study, published in the journal 'Simulation'. Mathematical equations which are used in scientific fields, such as condensed matter physics, were then applied to this data.
"This is a model that describes the evolution of a two-level system in which there is a probability of passing from one level to another," as explained to SINC by F?lix F. Mu?oz, UAM researcher and co-author of the project.
The team considered the Earth as a closed and finite system where the migration of people within the system has no impact and where the fundamental principle of the conservation of mass ?biomass in this case? and energy is fulfilled.
"Within this general principle, the variables that limit the upper and lower zone of the system's two levels are the birth and mortality rates," Mu?oz pointed out and recalled the change that occurred in the ratio between the two variables throughout the last century.
"We started with a general situation where both the birth rate and mortality rate were high, with slow growth favouring the former," he added, "but the mortality rate fell sharply in the second half of the 20th century as a result of advances in healthcare and increased life expectancy and it seemed that the population would grow a lot.
However, the past three decades have also seen a steep drop-off in the number of children being born worldwide."
The model's S-shaped sigmoid curve reflects this situation with an inflection point in the mid-1980s when the speed at which the population is growing starts to slow down until it stabilises around 2050.
The data also reflect the downward trend in the UN's series of prospects. "Overpopulation was a spectre in the 1960s and 70s but historically the UN's low fertility variant forecasts have been fulfilled," Mu?oz highlighted.
As recently as 1992 it was predicted that there would be 7.17 billion people on Earth by 2010 instead of the actual 6.8 billion. In fact, the fertility rate has fallen by more than 40% since 1950.
"This work is another aspect to be taken into consideration in the debate, although we do not deal with the significant economic, demographic and political consequences that the stabilisation and ageing of the world population could entail," the researcher concluded.
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FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology: http://www.fecyt.es/fecyt/home.do
Thanks to FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology for this article.
This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.
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'30 Rock' Movie Reference Supercut, Or 'Blurgh, I Just Lost 16 Minutes'
Though we're still mourning the loss of our beautiful "30 Rock," we'll always have seven wonderful seasons of comedy to watch on Netflix any time we're sad. The buried jokes and refernces on "30 Rock" make a rewatching marathons and supercuts, like the one Film.com just put together, so enjoyable. For this supercut, Film.com grabbed [...]
Source: http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2013/04/04/30-rock-movie-reference-supercut/
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Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Spotted: Hilary Duff and Her Mini Hockey Player Luca
Hilary Duff's little boy Luca shows off his hockey skills at Coldwater Canyon Park on Tuesday.
Source: http://feeds.celebritybabies.com/~r/celebrity-babies/~3/M6PBOvQAE0A/
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Jane Levy Talks Evil Dead
Evil Dead
In the much anticipated remake of the 1981 cult-hit horror film, five twenty-something friends become holed up in a remote ca... Read More
In the much anticipated remake of the 1981 cult-hit horror film, five twenty-something friends become holed up in a remote ca... Read More
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You might know Jane Levy as a nice suburban teen on "Suborgatory," but she's unrecognizable as the poster child for evil in "Evil Dead." She starts off as just a junkie looking to detox at the proverbial cabin in the woods, but then things literally go to hell when she's possessed by an ancient, bloodthirsty demon.
In the beyond-gory remake of the 1981 cult horror film, she takes over the lead role from Bruce Campbell, who gave the new cast his blessing.
Levy told Moviefone about the tough shoot, which included being buried alive, enduring a "blood rain," and spending more than a month in "evil" makeup. She admitted she wasn't much of a horror movie fan, but she is definitely game for more "Evil Dead."
Moviefone: It says in the press notes you're actually a "scaredy cat." So you're not a horror movie buff?
Levy: Not really, no. But I watched some after I got this job because I thought I should know about them.
Had you seen the original "Evil Dead?"
Mmm hmm. I watched it after I got the part and it made me more excited to be part of the project. I loved it.
The first one was actually fairly silly, but you go in a totally different direction with the remake.
It's a totally different direction, but there's the same fundamentals. The Book of the Dead and releasing the spirit and him taking the five souls.
How would you describe this version to fans of the original?
I would just tell them to give it a chance. I know they're going to see it. I know people's curiosity is going to get the better of them even if they don't want to, you know? It's its own movie. What's made me feel good about it is that the original creators are huge supporters of it. It's a "reimagining." People can see this movie without seeing the original. It's its own world.
Did you get any notes or advice from Sam Raimi or Bruce Campbell?
Bruce wrote the cast an e-mail when we started, saying, "This has been really tough and I'm passing the torch. Don't ever try to recreate anything we did, because" -- he was being humble -- "we weren't good actors back then." He was really sweet and his support has made me been able to get through the whole thing.
Do you think people were looking for a Bruce cameo?
I was expecting a Bruce Campbell cameo. I wanted it so bad.
I took a friend who's a huge horror movie fan to the screening and she said this was the most extreme horror movie she's ever seen. And I've been hearing about walkouts because it's just too intense for a lot of people. What's your reaction to that?
Yeah, we watched it at SXSW, it was the premiere. You can't ask for a better response from an audience. Nothing makes people so vocal. They were screaming and crying and laughing and cheering and whimpering. The energy in the theater was really fun. I started yelling myself.
Do you recognize yourself when you're made up as Evil Mia?
I guess so. I took so many pictures because the makeup was so intricate and beautiful, in some way. So I remember it all too well. I don't recognize my personality necessarily, but yeah, it's me up there. It's pretty fun to watch, actually. Kind of comical.
How do you keep things light on set when it's nothing but blood and mayhem all day long?
We didn't! Sometimes we did, but my biggest regret is I took it all so seriously. There's a way when the cameras are rolling to be that evil person and then be Jane right after, but I feel like I didn't have the skills to do that and from now on, in every movie I do -- you gotta keep it light when you're making something so heavy or else you're just going to get depressed.
What happened when you went home at night?
I didn't sleep. I had nightmares. We were so far away from home. It was the first time I'd been a lead in a movie and I'd worked so much. It all added up. But you've got to keep it light, when you're not filming, you've got to go get drunk or have one drink with a friend or watch a comedy. When we do number two, that's going to be my goal.
You're definitely coming back for the sequel?
Mmm hmm.
This already has elements of "Evil Dead 2" doesn't it?
I've never seen "Evil Dead 2." Sorry about that. I'm sorry to the world.
What was the most difficult day of filming for you?
Really hard to compare. Every day was some crazy thing. Being buried alive is something I'll be able to say for the rest of my life. I had blood squirted on my face and a plastic bag tied around my neck and an oxygen tube behind my ears so I wouldn't suffocate. And I got buried alive. I laid in the ditch until they covered me completely.
How long were you buried?
Once I was covered in dirt, I waited, like, two seconds and was able to dig myself out. It was just a layer of dirt over my face. I made sure I had my hands near my chest so I could immediately push the dirt off my face and rip the bag off my head.
So you had the toughest job on set?
Yeah, I think I had the toughest job. I worked the most out of anybody. Most people were in their evil makeup for a week, but I was in it for 37 days. I was just there forever.
And I also had to endure the blood rain at the end, which was in the middle of the night. Night shoots, winter, two weeks of it. I was alone, freezing cold, rolling around in the mud. It was hard.
Earlier on Moviefone:
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Source: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1927165/news/1927165/
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